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Кубр Милан Консалтинг

PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE

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What can management consultants do to be prepared for the future, when we know that change is the only constant and that our predictions of the future will at best be inaccurate and at worst completely wrong? How important will e-business really be? What will be the political situation and business strength of the Far East? How will international financial markets be regulated in ten years’ time? It would be useful to know the answers to these and similar questions, if not with certainty, then at least with a fair degree of probability. Consultants and other professionals alike could thus prepare for the future, with poise and without overrating passing fads, while attending to current business and doing their best to meet their clients’ current needs. This, however, is a scenario of dreams. In the economic and business reality of today, there are some broad and long-term trends that are irreversible and most consultants are aware of them. But developments can be slower or faster than expected, and can take many deviations that for some time go against the long-term trends. There will be many surprises even for those who try to be forward-looking and feel that they are well informed.

The changes that have taken place during recent decades have demonstrated amply that it is not possible to prepare for the future in any simple and conventional way, by extrapolating current trends. There is always a degree of risk in choosing among probable future scenarios. There is also risk in learning and one might well spend a lot of time and resources on developing knowledge and skills for which there will be little demand in a few years. Yet we hear again and again that the future belongs to those who are best prepared for it and who can see and take the new opportunities more quickly than others. How can we cope with this dilemma? How do consultants stay fit and avoid being bypassed by events and surpassed by competitors?

In this chapter, we have chosen not to review and comment on all plausible developments that may affect consulting in future years. Many of them have been mentioned in the previous chapters, have been reviewed in literature,1 and are regularly debated at consultants’ conferences. We prefer therefore to point